- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.52-34.57 this morning supportive level at 34.38 resistance level at 34.68
- SET Index: 1,430.4 (-0.55%), 27 Nov 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,998.7 (-0.38%), 27 Nov 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.393 (-3.42 bps), 27 Nov 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.25 (-5.00 bps), 27 Nov 2024
- The Fed's preferred inflation measure rises, supporting a cautious stance
- The U.S. second estimate for third-quarter economic growth remains unchanged at 2.8%
- Initial jobless claims dip slightly, beating expectations
- Thailand's industrial output decline moderates in October
- The dollar drops following a batch of economic data ahead of the long weekend
The Fed's preferred inflation measure rises, supporting a cautious stance
The October PCE report showed core prices rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, matching expectations. Headline prices increased 0.2% and 2.3% year-over-year. Analysts noted the rise was mainly due to volatile items like airline fares and used autos. The income data in the report suggest potential for strong spending growth in the coming months. Personal income rose 0.6%, exceeding expectations, while real personal spending increased 0.1%, falling short of forecasts. Adjusted spending grew by 0.4%.
The U.S. second estimate for third-quarter economic growth remains unchanged at 2.8%
The U.S. economy grew at a strong rate in the third quarter, driven mainly by broad-based consumer spending and stable business investment. Gross domestic product increased by 2.8% on an annualized basis, according to the second estimate. Consumer spending, the main driver of growth, rose 3.5%, the highest increase this year. Although still strong, household spending was slightly revised down from the initial report, reflecting somewhat weaker spending on goods. Meanwhile, business investment in research and development was revised upward.
Initial jobless claims dip slightly, beating expectations
Initial jobless claims fell slightly to 213,000, below the 216,000 forecast, and down from 215,000 last week. The 4-week average dropped to 217,000. Continued claims rose to 1.907 million, in line with expectations. The data shows stabilization after the strike and hurricane impacts. Attention now turns to the November NFP report which will influence the December 18th FOMC rate decision. With the strike and hurricane effects behind, 183,000 jobs are expected to be added, compared to 12,000 in October.
Thailand's industrial output decline moderates in October
Thailand's industrial output continued to decline in October, with the manufacturing production index (MPI) falling 0.91% year-over-year, slower than September's 3.18% drop. Auto production plummeted 25.13% for the 15th consecutive month, due to weak demand and tighter lending amid high household debt. For the first 10 months of 2024, the MPI is down 1.63%. The ministry lowered its MPI forecast to a 1.6% decrease for the year, down from an earlier projection of 0% to 1% growth.
The dollar drops following a batch of economic data ahead of the long weekend
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.393, -3.42 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.37, -3.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.25, -5.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.68, moving in a range of 34.52 – 34.57 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.38 – 34.68 today. The dollar experienced broad-based selling across the FX market as the Thanksgiving holiday approached. A series of U.S. data releases, including the monthly PCE prices and the second estimate for Q3 GDP, met expectations. However, a slight downward revision in Q3 Core PCE prices weighed on the greenback, and traders noted that recent portfolio rebalancing could contribute to further declines. The euro gained ground, holding near 1.0500, supported by hawkish ECB comments. The yen continued to strengthen, briefly pushing USD/JPY below 151.00 amid expectations the BoJ may resume rate hikes next month.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
